This is only a peace of mind of an International Relation graduate who feels like her analytical skill has been decreasing since graduation 😦
Okay. We all knew that the ever charismatic leader slash dictators for some ppl of North Korea, Kim Jong Il was reported died a few days ago.
Rather than debating whether he false his own death or not, we’d better discuss at how his death impact North-South Korea’s relation, and world politic as a whole. Because I think than this is more important rather than dwelling on conspiracy theory.
Kim Jong Il, inherited the throne of North Korea’s presidency from his father Kim Il Sung. Even though North Korea is a republic state, the presidential election system is not held as the usual system in many republics. And as expected, he will give the presidential baton to one of his sons, who turns out to be Kim Jong Eun.
His death are mourned by North Koreans. And maybe celebrated by some people in the world. Seeing one of the evil person has died, finally. That’s what they thought.
But was his death is actually a blessing? That North Korea can be finally free from isolation? That yeeyy finally the people can live the way we are now?
It doesn’t necessarily mean like that. A death of an influential leader in a conflict area can only mean TROUBLES rather than PEACE. Look at how Khadafi’s death still not guarantee peace in Libya. How NATO is still placed.there for peace keeping or peace building operation.
This will mean the same thing. Transitional regimes in ANY conflict state will bring us to uncertain or imbalance political situation.
If you think it has nothing to do with you because you live far away or far enough from North Korea, well then you could be mistaken. The world itself has connected in such ways so every event happened in other part of the world will affect us somehow, even in smaller scale.
The uncertainty of his death bring will possibly become a threat. Because of several things.
First, who is the successor? His son. Fine. But other than that, do you know anything else about him? And most importantly, HOW he will govern the nation?
Completely like his father was? Or different? That’s uncertainty that makes world leaders worry. If this successor doesn’t agree to sit and negotiate peacefully, especially about nuclear, what do you think will happen? Unleash nuclear will be the least possibility at this stage for it will affect north korean people too. Most possibly it will once again, raise tension between North and South Korea.
Second, tension between two neighboring countries which has been in conflict situation for decades is an ugly thing. Even though war may not happen in the end, the people and military will have to stay ALERT the whole time. Would you like living in fear? No one likes.
Third, no transitional government will be stable until few more months or a year..especially one like NK who is governed under authoritarian-dictactorian government. People there has been living in isolation..under strict rules and various doctrines by the government. They depend completely on them, especially their president. Evil as he might for international society, Kim Jong Il was God-like figure for his people. They worship and follow him undoubtedly. That kind of leadership, is irreplaceable. Like maybe Soekarno and Soeharto for Indonesia. They made fatal policies, appeared authoritarian to their people and international society, yet they were also well-loved and brought us prosperity, stability, and dignity for decades.
So if KJI’s successor doesn’t meet people’s expectation..or the military’s… There may be a coup d’etat..and military may take over the government. In their hands, the situation will be worse. A policy which depended heavily on military aspect, will be considered as threat to the neighbor countries and the world in general. Especially a country who developed nuclear weapon like North Korea.
For now, the only thing world leaders could do is to watch over the transition’s process closely (or as close as NK allow them to). Here, Chinese and Russian governments shall play bigger and important role.. For they are the only country has diplomatic ties with NK. But if there is a country, NK’s government may listen, is China. Because they are their closest ally (geographically, genealogically, historically).
Persuade them to sit and talk in negotiation may be the next step. Not only about the nuclear talks, but also about a series of agreements such as aids, economy, embargo, etc. Here to, China’s role will be very important.
For now..let’s see how the transitional period goes.. And hopefully the threat won’t spread to bigger scale and may trigger arms conflict…
If it escalates to bigger scale, you’d rather worry about your own well-being, than your idols ~_~ I mean, don’t be so ignorant. If arms conflicts erupt, ALL civillians’ lives will be endangered, not only your beloved idols.